Why is the Robusta Coffee price falling?
Robusta prices slipped to a four-month low on ICE, pressured by Vietnam’s peak harvest season and rising shipments from Brazil. Brazilian exports have gained momentum after the US waived tariffs on Brazilian coffee beans, improving their competitiveness in one of the world’s largest consuming markets. Uganda ranks as the eighth-largest coffee producer, a leading Robusta producer, and a significant exporter of green coffee.Due to the effects of climate change, the land suitable for coffee farming could shrink by 50% by 2050, according to a 2014 study. The analysis found that highly productive areas in the two largest coffee-producing countries in the world, Brazil and Vietnam, may become unsuitable for coffee in the future.Brazil is the world’s second-largest robusta producer after Vietnam and top arabica grower. However, a 2022 study found that more than three quarters of Brazil’s best land for growing arabica coffee could become unsuitable by 2050 due to higher temperatures and drought.Optimal coffee-growing conditions include cool to warm tropical climates, rich soils, and few pests or diseases. The world’s Coffee Belt spans the globe along the equator, with cultivation in North, Central, and South America; the Caribbean; Africa; the Middle East; and Asia.In 2017 Uganda adopted the Uganda Coffee Roadmap, a national plan to increase coffee production to 20 million bags and export earnings to USD$1. Coffee is an essential part of Uganda’s rural economy and generated over USD$1 billion in 2023/24 and is the 7th-largest exporter of coffee globally.
Why is there a spike in coffee prices?
Topline. Coffee prices have risen 20% since last year because of inflation and amid tariff disruptions to traditional supply lines, exemplifying a broader rise in grocery prices across the board. As of 2025, the global coffee market accounted for $256. CAGR of 4. This consistent growth reflects coffee’s enduring popularity, driven by changing consumer preferences, increasing disposable incomes, and the expanding coffee culture in emerging markets.An earlier report by the Climate Institute found that coffee production could be cut in half by 2050 due to climate change. Warming temperatures have started to introduce several new threats to the production of coffee, ranging from unsuitable growing temperatures to new warmer weather pests.The anticipated global supply shortfall is a central concern moving into 2025. Brazil’s depleted inventories and projected smaller arabica crop are expected to create a substantial gap in the global coffee supply.Over the longer term, consumers should brace for higher-than-average prices, analysts said. Extreme weather that negatively impacts coffee harvests is expected to be more common, and coffee consumption worldwide continues to increase and bolster demand, they said.
When was coffee the cheapest?
Since 1975, the lowest price seen is in 2002, when you could purchase 1 pound of coffee for a yearly average of $0. This is actually the lowest price seen in 100years and known as the 2001 coffee crisis. Calendar year 2025 saw coffee prices reach unprecedented levels in nominal terms. New York hit its all-time high on 13 February, with the main contract at 425. London reached record-high prices the day before (12 February), with the benchmark at $5,821.Over the longer term, consumers should brace for higher-than-average prices, analysts said. Extreme weather that negatively impacts coffee harvests is expected to be more common, and coffee consumption worldwide continues to increase and bolster demand, they said.robusta coffee prices** on ice futures europe rose slightly, with the january 2026 contract at $4132/ton, up $23/ton, and september 2026 at $3792/ton, up $16/ton. Arabica on ice futures us climbed, march 2026 at 355. December 2026 at 323.In the 1970s, coffee prices were volatile, reaching record highs in 1977 when the Coffee C price hit $3. This spike was largely driven by the infamous Brazilian frost of 1975, which decimated crops and sent shockwaves through the market.
What is the price prediction for coffee?
Coffee is expected to trade at 365. USd/Lbs by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 401. Arabica coffee, which once hit US$4. February 2025, is now priced at US$2. Meanwhile, Robusta fell from US$2. February 2025 to US$1. Smallholder farmers relying on price and harvest stability find themselves hardest hit by this change, with retailers also feeling the effects.
What is the 80/20 rule for coffee?
The 80/20 rule for coffee states that 20% of the brewing variables contribute to 80% of the final flavour quality. Focus on water temperature and grind size because these primary factors dictate the success of your extraction process. The standard “golden ratio” for coffee is 1:16 – that’s one part coffee to 16 parts water by weight. For example, if you’re using 20 grams of coffee, you’ll need 320 grams (or milliliters) of water. This ratio is a great starting point for most brewing methods and balances strength and flavor.