What is the price prediction for cocoa futures?
Cocoa is expected to trade at 5670. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4876. Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.Gov’t announces cocoa price increase for 2025/2026 season, farmers to get GH₵58,000 per tonne. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season.On 4th August 2025, Government announced a producer price of cocoa for the 2025/2026 season at GHS3,228. GHS51,660 (US$5,040) per tonne, representing 70% of the average Gross FoB price of US$7,200 per tonne.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).
What is going on with cocoa futures?
Cocoa Futures Hit New 2024-Low On the demand side, upcoming Q3 cocoa grind data for Europe, North America, and Asia is expected to show year-on-year declines, following three consecutive quarters of falling cocoa bean processing across all regions. The cocoa crisis isn’t inevitable—there are solutions. But it will take real effort from Governments, the chocolate industry and consumers to ensure chocolate has a sustainable future. One of the most promising solutions is agroforestry, where cocoa is grown under the shade of taller trees like mango or cashew.Cocoa crisis (2024–present) As of February 2025, cocoa prices have repeatedly hit record highs since 2024, after consecutive growing seasons in West Africa were negatively impacted by weather and disease.Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producing country. Around 2 million tonnes of cocoa are produced in this coastal country. That is approximately 38 % of the world’s cocoa. This industry accounts for 15 % of the country’s gross domestic product.Why is cocoa becoming extinct? Cocoa is not becoming extinct, but its production is under threat due to factors like poor farmer incomes, climate change, aging trees, deforestation, pests, and diseases. Will chocolate go extinct?Cocoa farmers usually clear tropical forests to plant new cocoa trees rather than reusing the same land. That practice has spurred massive deforestation in West Africa, particularly in Ivory Coast. Experts estimate that 70% of the country’s illegal deforestation is related to cocoa farming.
Why is the price of cocoa dropping?
The highly volatile price of cocoa declined over 40% in global markets as drought concerns eased in West Africa and harvest increases. The ton price of cocoa dropped below $7,000, declining more than 40% since the end of 2024. Estimates of increased supply and weakening demand led to sharp declines. Cocoa prices are affected by reduced production, high global demand, climate change and rising production costs. High cocoa prices have a direct impact on the chocolate, cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries, which is ultimately felt by end consumers.Part of that upswing is driven, of course, by chocolate — which, in turn, is driven by the cocoa prices that have more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, according to a recent analysis from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.Cocoa powder prices will likely increase more due to the increased demand for compound/imitation chocolate where cocoa powder is used in the recipes. This may lead to availability issues on cocoa powder.Over the past month, Cocoa’s price has fallen 23. CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906 in December of 2024.Subsequent to this meeting, Government is pleased to announce an increase in the producer price of cocoa from US$3,100 per tonne to US$5,040 per tonne. It is instructive to note that Government has by this decision increased the producer price significantly by 62. US$ terms.
Will cocoa keep rising?
Cocoa prices have eased from the record highs of late 2024, but a knock-on effect is still being passed through from chocolatiers onto consumers, according to analysts. Cocoa price prediction: Technical overview US Cocoa (CCc1) trades at $7,398. UTC, below its 20/50/100/200-DMAs at ~7,796 / 8,038 / 8,700 / 9,233. RSI(14) is 42, signalling neutral momentum. The nearest resistance is at 8,529; a daily close above could bring 9,348 into view.
Is cocoa good to invest in?
Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment. Why Cocoa Is in Short Supply? The most significant factor behind the cocoa shortage is severe weather in West Africa. Heavy rains have caused serious challenges for cocoa farmers, leading to issues like flower drop – the premature shedding of flowers before they develop into pods – and the spread of black pod disease.One of the key causes of the cocoa crisis is weather having a negative impact on yields. The process of cocoa production requires very specific climatic conditions.Poor West African Harvests (Climate Change Impacts) 70% of global cocoa comes from West Africa — especially Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Extreme weather patterns (heavy rains, droughts, heatwaves) have slashed crop yields.Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment.
What are the risks of cocoa futures?
Climate Risks Shape Cocoa Futures Increasing climate risks to production means greater costs for buyers. Forced to pay more for cocoa, chocolate companies have adopted various strategies to maintain profitability — overall, passing the price on to consumers. Cocoa supply is expected to improve in 2025 due to favorable weather conditions in West Africa. The continuously challenging weather in West Africa, where most of the world’s cocoa supply comes from, led to the highest prices of cocoa products in history.Cocoa futures are traded on the ice exchange under ticker symbol cc in dollars per metric ton. cocoa futures prices rarely follow reliable patterns due to political issues, mainly in africa.