What is the cocoa market forecast for 2025?
Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects Nigeria’s 2025/26 cocoa production will fall -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. In related news, Nigeria reported that its July cocoa exports fell -22% y/y to 13,579 MT. Key takeaways On the supply side, cocoa production is expected to ramp up during the 2025/2026 season as weather conditions improve and new plantings in Ecuador reach maturity. Despite the recent downtrend, J. P. Morgan Global Research expects cocoa prices to remain structurally higher for longer at $6,000/tonne.The government has announced a substantial increase in the producer price of cocoa for the 2025/2026 crop season, raising it to GH¢3,625 per 64kg bag, equivalent to GH¢58,000 per tonne.In an unprecedented surge, the report says, cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years. Since january 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly usd 12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” raboresearch analyst paul joules said.Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT.
What is the all time high for cocoa futures?
Over the past month, Cocoa’s price has fallen 18. CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906 in December of 2024. Gov’t announces cocoa price increase for 2025/2026 season, farmers to get GH₵58,000 per tonne. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season.In London, the nearby cocoa futures contract (i. MAR-25) started January 2025 at US$ 11,107 per tonne, dropped to US$10,439 per tonne and peaked at US$11,510 per tonne. In New York, at US$11,180 on the first trading day of the month, prices declined to US$10,422 per tonne and later rose to US$11,727 per tonne.
How much is the cocoa price in 2025?
On 4th August 2025, Government announced a producer price of cocoa for the 2025/2026 season at GHS3,228. GHS51,660 (US$5,040) per tonne, representing 70% of the average Gross FoB price of US$7,200 per tonne. Cocoa price prediction: Technical overview US Cocoa (CCc1) trades at $7,398. UTC, below its 20/50/100/200-DMAs at ~7,796 / 8,038 / 8,700 / 9,233. RSI(14) is 42, signalling neutral momentum. The nearest resistance is at 8,529; a daily close above could bring 9,348 into view.Cocoa Futures Hit New 2024-Low On the demand side, upcoming Q3 cocoa grind data for Europe, North America, and Asia is expected to show year-on-year declines, following three consecutive quarters of falling cocoa bean processing across all regions.Cocoa price forecast: Analyst price target view Wallet Investor forecasts cocoa to close 2025 at around $8,127. Wallet Investor, 10 September 2025).Cocoa prices have eased from the record highs of late 2024, but a knock-on effect is still being passed through from chocolatiers onto consumers, according to analysts.
Who is the biggest trader of cocoa?
Germany is the biggest cocoa exporter in the world, with cocoa exports worth $7. Olam food ingredients are the biggest cocoa suppliers in the world with an export revenue of $4. Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa-producing country (Côte d’Ivoire is the largest). Cocoa Life has been active in Ghana since 2008, when it began as the Cadbury Cocoa Partnership.Nigeria remains a key player in the global cocoa export industry, with its beans in high demand across Europe, Asia, and North America. Countries like the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Germany lead the import charts, while emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia continue to drive new growth opportunities.Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producing country. Around 2 million tonnes of cocoa are produced in this coastal country. That is approximately 38 % of the world’s cocoa. This industry accounts for 15 % of the country’s gross domestic product.
Why are cocoa futures so high?
Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply. The Cocoa commodity holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal.The minimal processing and often organic cultivation of cacao typically make it a higher-quality and, thus, more expensive product than cocoa.Climate, currency fluctuation, regulation and fickle consumer demand all combine to make the cocoa market one of the most volatile of the commodity markets.Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment.Climate Risks Shape Cocoa Futures Increasing climate risks to production means greater costs for buyers. Forced to pay more for cocoa, chocolate companies have adopted various strategies to maintain profitability — overall, passing the price on to consumers.
Who is the world’s largest supplier of cocoa?
Global Hotspots for Cocoa Production With 2. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer, accounting for a third of the global total. Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) leads the world in the production and export of the cocoa beans used in the manufacture of chocolate. As of 2024, the country produced 45% of the world’s cocoa.Cocoa powder prices will likely increase more due to the increased demand for compound/imitation chocolate where cocoa powder is used in the recipes. This may lead to availability issues on cocoa powder.Poor West African Harvests (Climate Change Impacts) 70% of global cocoa comes from West Africa — especially Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Extreme weather patterns (heavy rains, droughts, heatwaves) have slashed crop yields.Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.
Is cocoa good to invest in?
Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment. Cocoa Powder Shortage 2025: Why Cocoa Is So Expensive & How Bakers Can Adapt. If you’ve noticed cocoa powder costing far more — or disappearing from supermarket shelves — you’re not alone. The global cocoa powder shortage is hitting home bakers, artisan chocolatiers, and small baking businesses worldwide.