What is happening in the coffee market?
Coffee growers are dealing with a lot right now. Most immediately, the Trump administration’s tariffs, which threaten their sales, add to the ongoing challenges of pests and diseases for coffee production. In the longer term, experts say the coffee industry can’t continue with business as usual. You’re not imagining it. Industry experts confirm that commodity coffee prices have soared by as much as 40% since last year, and they say a major factor is an import tax—tariffs—hitting a product the U. S.Coffee Inflation That report showed that packaged whole bean/ground and instant coffee cost consumers nearly 21% more in August 2025 compared to a year earlier.Coffee prices have soared nearly 21% in the past year, partly because Trump has slapped 50% import taxes on Brazil, a leading coffee exporter, and also because climate change-induced droughts have cut into coffee bean harvests.Today, global coffee shortages are becoming a pressing concern. This shortage has impacted farmers, traders, and coffee lovers worldwide. Moreover, this shortage has also raised other concerns such as coffee prices.Coffee is expected to trade at 384. USd/Lbs by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 423.
What are US coffee market trends?
The Coffee Market Is Growing Rapidly Out-of-home revenue – generated in restaurants and bars – will touch US$376. Combined revenue in 2025 is expected to hit US$473. The revenue, at home is expected to grow annually by 2. CAGR 2025-2029). Major coffee importing countries worldwide 2024 As the leading global coffee importer, the United States imported more than 1. U. S. Colombian coffee in 2023.The global specialty coffee market size was estimated at USD 101. USD 183. CAGR of 10.Colombia and Brazil have been the top two countries exporting coffee to the US in each year since at least 2009.The United States is the world’s second leading importer of coffee (both Arabica and Robusta varieties). In 2023, about 80 percent of U. S. Latin America (valued at $4. Brazil (35 percent) and Colombia (27 percent).In April 2025, the U. S. These tariffs have increased the cost of coffee at the point of entry into the U. S.
Why are coffee prices rising in the USA?
Several factors are behind the spike in coffee prices, including droughts in Brazil and volatile weather in other regions where the bean is cultivated. More recently, heavy U. S. Brazil — have also driven up prices. Arabica coffee prices are surging due to indications of severe dry conditions in Brazil’s primary coffee-growing region. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 20. October 11, or 48% of the historical average.Situated in South America, Brazil is the top producer of coffee. They produce 2,68 million metric tons of coffee on average every year. Brazil has also held onto its first-place position as the world’s largest coffee producer for over 150 years. Brazil’s climate is perfect for growing Robusta and Arabica coffee beans.Geneva, Switzerland —Uganda has claimed the top spot as the continent’s leading coffee exporter, surpassing Ethiopia in May 2025 with a record-breaking 47,606.But by 2050, rising temperatures could shrink the global area suitable for growing coffee by half. And at least 60 percent of all coffee species — including arabica, the most popular bean — are at risk of going extinct in the wild due to climate change, deforestation and disease.
Will coffee prices fall?
Production is predicted to increase over the next three years, easing concerns for farmers and investors and promising rapid price drops of Arabica and Robusta coffee beans. If this trend continues, it could result in a return of more products to the shelves and lower prices for consumers. Simply put, we do not have the climate to support growing coffee. Additionally, American coffee production is projected to continue to decrease, experiencing a decrease of 26% in 2023-24.What is the forecast for the coffee industry? The coffee industry is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years, driven by changing consumer preferences, increasing coffee consumption in emerging markets, and the introduction of innovative coffee products.You may already be aware but as we enter 2025, spot green coffee prices have surged to unprecedented levels. Several factors, including climate change, supply chain disruptions, and rising global demand, are driving this significant price increase.Coffee was one of the best performing commodities in 2021, and it looks set to have another cracker in 2022.
Is London’s coffee market growing?
The London coffee market is experiencing a significant boom, reflecting a broader global trend towards increased coffee consumption. The market size is estimated to be worth approximately £1. CAGR) of 5. Coffee prices have risen more than 20% since August last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last month, prices for coffee futures reached a record high in the Intercontinental Exchange in New York after Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, cut its 2025 arabica production forecast by 4.Price Forecasts and Market Outlook Looking further ahead, the bank expects prices to normalise to $2. Trading Economics projected that coffee prices will reach $3. Q1 2025 and rise further to $3. January 2026.India is now the seventh-largest coffee producer globally with exports reaching $1. FY 2023-24, almost double the $719. India’s coffee exports have grown significantly due to the increasing global demand for its rich and unique flavors.Germany imported Coffee, not roasted or decaffeinated from Brazil ($1,672,460. K , 408,589,000 Kg), Vietnam ($519,365. K , 231,210,000 Kg), Honduras ($335,781. K , 69,407,400 Kg), Peru ($290,873. K , 56,413,800 Kg), Colombia ($270,618. K , 46,115,500 Kg).
Will the price of coffee go up in 2025?
Coffee prices have surged to levels not seen in years. In fact, Arabica coffee futures, which largely dictate global green coffee prices, rose over 70% in 2024, peaking above $4. What is changing about the Fairtrade Minimum Price for coffee? The Fairtrade Minimum Price for coffee is increasing. As of 1 August 2023, the new Fairtrade Minimum Price for washed Arabica beans is $1.