What is happening in the cocoa market?
Expectations of abundant global cocoa supplies are hammering cocoa prices. Cocoa deliveries in Ghana have surged, weighing on prices. Cocoa arrivals to ports in Ghana in the four weeks ending September 4 reached 50,440 MT compared to about 11,000 MT delivered in the same period in 2024. Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects Nigeria’s 2025/26 cocoa production will fall -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. In related news, Nigeria reported that its July cocoa exports fell -22% y/y to 13,579 MT.Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.Gov’t announces cocoa price increase for 2025/2026 season, farmers to get GH₵58,000 per tonne. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).The highly volatile price of cocoa declined over 40% in global markets as drought concerns eased in West Africa and harvest increases. The ton price of cocoa dropped below $7,000, declining more than 40% since the end of 2024. Estimates of increased supply and weakening demand led to sharp declines.
Who is the world’s largest supplier of cocoa?
Global Hotspots for Cocoa Production With 2. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer, accounting for a third of the global total. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producing country. Around 2 million tonnes of cocoa are produced in this coastal country. That is approximately 38 % of the world’s cocoa.Ivory Coast overtook Ghana as the world’s leading producer of cocoa beans in 1978, and is today highly dependent on the crop, which accounts for 40% of national export income.Nearly 70 percent of the world’s cocoa comes from two countries in West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The crop is a critical and often sole source of cash for millions of smallholder farming families and supports the livelihood of millions more people in both countries.Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8. MT in 2024/25.
What is the price prediction for cocoa futures?
Cocoa is expected to trade at 5670. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4876. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season. The new price has been set at GH₵3,625 per bag, equivalent to GH₵58,000 per tonne, effective Friday, October 3, 2025.Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT.Cocoa crisis (2024–present) As of February 2025, cocoa prices have repeatedly hit record highs since 2024, after consecutive growing seasons in West Africa were negatively impacted by weather and disease.
Why are cocoa futures so high?
Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply. Part of that upswing is driven, of course, by chocolate — which, in turn, is driven by the cocoa prices that have more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, according to a recent analysis from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.Cocoa futures are a part of the commodities futures group traded on the InterContinental Exchange in the U. S. Trading is mainly weather and politically-based.Climate Risks Shape Cocoa Futures Increasing climate risks to production means greater costs for buyers. Forced to pay more for cocoa, chocolate companies have adopted various strategies to maintain profitability — overall, passing the price on to consumers.
Is cocoa expected to rise?
Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT. Cocoa Futures Hit New 2024-Low On the demand side, upcoming Q3 cocoa grind data for Europe, North America, and Asia is expected to show year-on-year declines, following three consecutive quarters of falling cocoa bean processing across all regions.Cocoa prices have eased from the record highs of late 2024, but a knock-on effect is still being passed through from chocolatiers onto consumers, according to analysts.Cocoa price prediction: Technical overview US Cocoa (CCc1) trades at $7,398. UTC, below its 20/50/100/200-DMAs at ~7,796 / 8,038 / 8,700 / 9,233. RSI(14) is 42, signalling neutral momentum. The nearest resistance is at 8,529; a daily close above could bring 9,348 into view.