Is cocoa bullish or bearish?
After testing a significant resistance zone, Cocoa futures prices are once again moving lower, continuing the bearish retracement that started on December 18, 2024. This current downward leg is expected to break below the April 2025 low, potentially reaching the 6576–5356 area. Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).Key takeaways. Cocoa prices are rising due to factors including a global supply shortage and chronic underinvestment in cocoa farms. Despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices look set to remain high in the medium term, hovering around the $6,000/tonne mark once a balanced market is reached.Cocoa is a highly valuable commodity as it is a key ingredient in chocolate and other confectionery products. For investors looking for long-term growth opportunities, investing in cocoa can be a lucrative venture. Investing in cocoa can yield significant.Future Outlook Analysts have mixed views on the future of cocoa prices: Bullish Perspective: Some forecasts suggest that cocoa prices could remain elevated, potentially reaching just under $9,000 per ton in 2025, due to ongoing supply challenges and steady demand.
What is the future prediction for cocoa?
Yesterday Reuters reported that the consultancy Commodity Risk Analysis has forecast a 325,000-ton global cocoa surplus for the upcoming 2025/26 season, which they said was the first surplus in three years. They credited investments in cocoa production in Ecuador, Peru, Nigeria and Brazil in the wake of higher prices. Cocoa prices have soared to unprecedented levels this year, hitting a record high of $10. January 31 – the highest price seen in 60 years. This follows a turbulent first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, when prices nearly doubled compared to the same period last year.Cocoa is not becoming extinct, but its production is under threat due to factors like poor farmer incomes, climate change, aging trees, deforestation, pests, and diseases.Cocoa Shortage Will Squeeze Chocolate Makers in 2025 According to data from World Bank, global cocoa production fell by 14% in the 2023-24 season, as output slowed in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where at least 60% of the world’s cocoa is produced.Compared to the 2023/24 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to increase by almost 7. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by almost 4.
Will cocoa prices go up?
A Price Surge Like Never Before In December 2024, cocoa prices reached an all-time high, surpassing $12,000 per metric ton—a staggering increase from around $2,000 in 2022. This historic surge is shaking up the chocolate industry, with major companies passing costs onto consumers. The cost of cocoa has reached a record high, and the price keeps climbing. How is industry reacting and what does this mean for the future of this highly sought after commodity? The price of cocoa hit a record high in December, reaching $10.Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906 in December of 2024. Cocoa – data, forecasts, historical chart – was last updated on July 5 of 2025.Cocoa prices will remain elevated despite some potential declines amid higher input and sustainability costs, confectionary company Lindt & Sprüngli’s CEO Adalbert Lechner told CNBC.The market for cocoa and chocolate is expanding. In 2024, the global cocoa bean market was valued at USD 17. It is expected to grow by almost 7% per year to USD 24 billion by 2029. The global industrial chocolate market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.The International Cocoa Organization revealed that the 2024-2025 season might be the first in three years of shortages, bringing the industry back to surplus. Production is expected to rise by 7.
Why is the cocoa price dropping?
Why are cocoa prices falling? Global cocoa production is recovering after poor growing conditions cut yields and put pressure on supplies. The 2024/25 season is forecast at 4. That’s an 8% year-on-year increase. Cocoa is expected to trade at 9941. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 11587.Key takeaways. Cocoa prices are rising due to factors including a global supply shortage and chronic underinvestment in cocoa farms. Despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices look set to remain high in the medium term, hovering around the $6,000/tonne mark once a balanced market is reached.Why Cocoa Is in Short Supply? The most significant factor behind the cocoa shortage is severe weather in West Africa. Heavy rains have caused serious challenges for cocoa farmers, leading to issues like flower drop – the premature shedding of flowers before they develop into pods – and the spread of black pod disease.Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment.
What is the forecast for cocoa production?
ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT. Key takeaways. Cocoa prices are rising due to factors including a global supply shortage and chronic underinvestment in cocoa farms. Despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices look set to remain high in the medium term, hovering around the $6,000/tonne mark once a balanced market is reached.Cocoa crisis (2024–present) As of February 2025, cocoa prices have repeatedly hit record highs since 2024, after consecutive growing seasons in West Africa were impacted by weather and disease.Global cocoa production is also set for growth, with 6. Ivory Coast is the number one cocoa producer, with 2.New research by climate scientists Gilbert John Anim-Kwapong and Peter Läderach has reinforced the urgency of the situation. Their studies highlight that without serious intervention, cocoa-growing regions in West Africa could become completely unsuitable for production by 2050.
Why is cocoa crashing?
Global cocoa production has been impacted for the last four years due to a rapidly changing climate, and also El Nino and La Nina effects. For a small manufacturer, this has the potential to put us out of business long term as our wholesale price for 2025 is very close to passing our retail price of 2023. To sum up, revenue from cocoa farming can be substantial, especially in the current market. A well-managed one-hectare cocoa at ₹500/kg yields gross ₹5 lakh. Even after costs, this is an attractive net income for a hectare, often exceeding the returns from the main crop it’s intercropped with.In 2021, Top exporters of Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted are Cote d’Ivoire ($4,286,782. K , 1,606,410,000 Kg), Ghana ($1,370,363. K ), Ecuador ($819,457. K , 329,784,000 Kg), Nigeria ($560,101. K , 366,286,000 Kg), Cameroon ($482,366. K , 212,681,000 Kg).Droughts, floods, and plant diseases thrashing the region last year contributed to record cocoa prices, which in turn caused the cost of chocolate to jump, according to a report by the nonprofit Christian Aid, which works toward sustainable development and economic justice.On the demand side, Q1 2025 quarterly grinding data from major cocoa associations revealed a decline: the European Cocoa Association reported a drop of 3. Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) reported a decline of 3. National Confectioners Association (NCA) reported a .