Why are coffee stocks down?
Why Stocks Are Falling. Analysts point to several reasons behind the decline: Weaker export flows – Global green coffee exports fell for the sixth consecutive month in July 2025, tightening supplies into key markets. Coffee Prices Drop as Supply Recovers After Climate Setbacks. After facing low harvests and high prices in the spring of 2025, coffee prices are dramatically decreasing. As a result, ripples are being seen throughout the global supply chain following a period of unpredictable crop yields and unstable consumer prices.Our coffee, our why Starbucks proudly sources 100% arabica coffee from more than 450,000 farmers in 30 markets along “The Coffee Belt” – in Latin America, Asia Pacific and Africa. Our buyers, based in Lausanne, Switzerland, scour the globe for the finest coffees, including our premium, single-origin Reserve selections.Arabica ground coffee, selected from the world’s most renowned coffee growing regions, beans are blended and roasted with care to deliver the consistent taste of Tim Hortons every time. Arabica ground coffee, decaffeinated by the Swiss Water®️ process to preserve our signature flavor.This shortage has impacted farmers, traders, and coffee lovers worldwide. Moreover, this shortage has also raised other concerns such as coffee prices. In 2024, global coffee prices surged by 147%, with premium Arabica beans reaching USD 3. USD 5,200 per metric ton.Coffee is expected to trade at 422. USd/Lbs by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 461.
Why is the price of coffee falling?
An improved supply and demand situation, where the underlying fundamentals are more positive, with coffee year 2024/25 estimated to be in surplus. An improved harvest from Brazil, with the weekly progress throughout July showing that it is ahead of the rate for crop year 2024/25. Brazil holds the prestigious position of being the number one coffee producer globally, renowned for its high-quality Arabica and Robusta beans. The country’s vast plantations and skilled farmers contribute significantly to its dominance in the coffee industry.Brazil is unquestionably the king of coffee producing countries. It is the world’s largest producer and exporter of Arabica variety coffee, with an ideal climate and a vast territory. The Brazilian regions of Minas Gerais and São Paulo are famous for their high-quality coffee plantations.Severe droughts and erratic rainfall in Brazil and Vietnam have triggered a supply crunch, while weather unpredictability has destabilised entire supply chains, both of which continue to pressure the coffee sector in 2025.Brazil is the strongest powerhouse in the list of coffee output nations, producing on its own nearly 40% of the world’s supply, thanks to a conducive climate perfectly suiting coffee farming that is possible to find in many areas of the country.
Is Starbucks a risky stock?
In past downturns, Starbucks has consistently fallen harder than the broader market: during the 2021–23 inflation shock, the stock plunged 44% while the S&P 500 lost just 25%. It tumbled 40% during Covid versus a 34% drop for the index, and in the financial crisis, it cratered 80% compared to the S&P’s 57% slide. Valuation metrics show that Starbucks Corporation may be overvalued. Its Value Score of F indicates it would be a bad pick for value investors. The financial health and growth prospects of SBUX, demonstrate its potential to underperform the market. It currently has a Growth Score of D.Factors Hurting SBUX Heavy investments in labor hours, store transformation initiatives, and leadership programs are weighing on profitability, with earnings per share falling 45% year over year. Much of Starbucks’ recovery hinges on the success of Green Apron Service, menu simplification, and future innovations.
Will coffee prices go up?
Analysts agree that coffee prices will likely stay high or rise further. A 2025 Reuters analysis noted global coffee prices hit multi-decade highs due to weather challenges in major production regions such as Brazil and Vietnam. Coffee price keeps rising – Forecast today – 2-9-2025 The coffee price ended its last bullish rally by surpassing the barrier at 370.Rabobank has warned that global coffee consumption may be peaking – projected to fall 0. At-home consumption, which surged during the pandemic, has since softened.The coffee market size has grown strongly in recent years. It will grow from $66. CAGR) of 5.Year-over-year price increase The median monthly price of regular coffee on restaurant menus in July 2025 was $3. July 2024.Is Coffee a good investment? Investing in coffee can be a good option for those looking for a stable commodity to diversify their portfolio. The coffee market is one of the most active commodity markets in the world, with an estimated 2.