What is the future prediction for cocoa?
Yesterday Reuters reported that the consultancy Commodity Risk Analysis has forecast a 325,000-ton global cocoa surplus for the upcoming 2025/26 season, which they said was the first surplus in three years. They credited investments in cocoa production in Ecuador, Peru, Nigeria and Brazil in the wake of higher prices. Over the past month, Cocoa’s price has fallen 2. CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906 in December of 2024.Key takeaways. Cocoa prices are rising due to factors including a global supply shortage and chronic underinvestment in cocoa farms. Despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices look set to remain high in the medium term, hovering around the $6,000/tonne mark once a balanced market is reached.Cocoa is expected to trade at 9941. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 11587.Global cocoa production has been impacted for the last four years due to a rapidly changing climate, and also El Nino and La Nina effects. For a small manufacturer, this has the potential to put us out of business long term as our wholesale price for 2025 is very close to passing our retail price of 2023.
What is the outlook for cocoa?
Future Outlook Analysts have mixed views on the future of cocoa prices: Bullish Perspective: Some forecasts suggest that cocoa prices could remain elevated, potentially reaching just under $9,000 per ton in 2025, due to ongoing supply challenges and steady demand. Why are cocoa prices falling? Global cocoa production is recovering after poor growing conditions cut yields and put pressure on supplies. The 2024/25 season is forecast at 4. That’s an 8% year-on-year increase.The global cocoa supply is shrinking due to climate change and rising demand. Chocolate manufacturers are reducing cocoa content and reformulating products to manage costs. Strategic procurement, diversification, and sustainability efforts can stabilize supply chains.Cocoa prices will remain elevated despite some potential declines amid higher input and sustainability costs, confectionary company Lindt & Sprüngli’s CEO Adalbert Lechner told CNBC.Cocoa is a highly valuable commodity as it is a key ingredient in chocolate and other confectionery products. For investors looking for long-term growth opportunities, investing in cocoa can be a lucrative venture. Investing in cocoa can yield significant.High temperatures, ageing trees and disease have lowered cocoa supplies and raised prices. Cocoa prices surged almost 300 percent last year, making chocolate bars, Easter eggs and cocoa powder much more expensive this year than last.
Will cocoa prices go up?
A Price Surge Like Never Before In December 2024, cocoa prices reached an all-time high, surpassing $12,000 per metric ton—a staggering increase from around $2,000 in 2022. This historic surge is shaking up the chocolate industry, with major companies passing costs onto consumers. The average female cocoa farmer is paid as little as 23p a day, highlighting a gender pay gap in the global chocolate industry, according to Fairtrade. That figure is well below the extreme global poverty line of £1.Ghanaian cocoa farmers may see a further increase in the farmgate price for the 2025/2026 season, which begins in August. Sources close to the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod), cited by Bloomberg, indicate the price could rise to 3,300 cedis per 64-kilogram bag, equivalent to about $319.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).
What is US cocoa?
US Cocoa / Cocoa – Trading Details Cocoa is a popular agricultural commodity mostly produced in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia. This soft commodity has been used as a common currency in Africa, Central and South America and Asia. A massive global cocoa shortage. About 75% of the world’s cocoa comes from West Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana leading the charge. But these regions have been hit with problem after problem: Severe weather – Heavy rains, followed by droughts, have wrecked cocoa crops.Côte d’Ivoire (the Ivory Coast) is the largest producer of cocoa in the world, producing over 2 million tons a year. About 75 percent of the land in Côte d’Ivoire is suitable for growing crops, and almost half of its citizens work in agriculture, including many children.Cocoa farmers usually clear tropical forests to plant new cocoa trees rather than reusing the same land. That practice has spurred massive deforestation in West Africa, particularly in Ivory Coast. Experts estimate that 70% of the country’s illegal deforestation is related to cocoa farming.Low fertilizer use, plant diseases, adverse weather conditions, and a shift among West African farmers from cocoa farming to gold mining and rubber production contributed to supply challenges.
Is cocoa bullish or bearish?
After testing a significant resistance zone, Cocoa futures prices are once again moving lower, continuing the bearish retracement that started on December 18, 2024. This current downward leg is expected to break below the April 2025 low, potentially reaching the 6576–5356 area. Cocoa is not becoming extinct, but its production is under threat due to factors like poor farmer incomes, climate change, aging trees, deforestation, pests, and diseases.JUNE 2025: Cocoa Price Trends & Market Outlook – Will there be a collapse in global cocoa demand? Cocoa trading at 9042. USD/T on Thursday, June 26, a 163. USD/T (1.In cocoa-growing communities across the world, concurrent environmental and social pressures have led to a dramatic reduction in supply and a steep increase in prices in recent years. Cocoa prices doubled in 2024 alone, and the year closed out with prices at a 50-year high. What is driving this trend?When the steam engine was invented, so was mechanized cocoa bean grinding. With this quicker and easier production process, prices reduced and cocoa bean products became more affordable to everyone— not just the rich. These days people across the world consume more than 3 million tons of cocoa beans each year!On the demand side, Q1 2025 quarterly grinding data from major cocoa associations revealed a decline: the European Cocoa Association reported a drop of 3. Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) reported a decline of 3. National Confectioners Association (NCA) reported a .