What is the prediction for cocoa prices?
Cocoa price prediction: Technical overview US Cocoa (CCc1) trades at $7,398. UTC, below its 20/50/100/200-DMAs at ~7,796 / 8,038 / 8,700 / 9,233. RSI(14) is 42, signalling neutral momentum. The nearest resistance is at 8,529; a daily close above could bring 9,348 into view. Cocoa is expected to trade at 5670. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4876.Key takeaways. Cocoa prices are falling on the back of softer industrial demand as manufacturers grapple with higher costs and tighter margins. On the supply side, cocoa production is expected to ramp up during the 2025/2026 season as weather conditions improve and new plantings in Ecuador reach maturity.The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season. The new price has been set at GH₵3,625 per bag, equivalent to GH₵58,000 per tonne, effective Friday, October 3, 2025.Much of the global cocoa supply comes from major producers like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire in West Africa, which saw dramatic swings between heavy rainfall and drought in recent years, worsening crop yields on cacao farms and triggering disease.
Is cocoa going up in price?
Part of that upswing is driven, of course, by chocolate — which, in turn, is driven by the cocoa prices that have more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, according to a recent analysis from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. After Ghana announced new rates in August, Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top producer, will launch its 2025/26 cocoa marketing season in October. Sources at the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC) told Reuters that the government will set the farm-gate price at CFA 2,500 ($4.Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).One of the key causes of the cocoa crisis is weather having a negative impact on yields. The process of cocoa production requires very specific climatic conditions.
Why is the price of cocoa dropping?
The highly volatile price of cocoa declined over 40% in global markets as drought concerns eased in West Africa and harvest increases. The ton price of cocoa dropped below $7,000, declining more than 40% since the end of 2024. Estimates of increased supply and weakening demand led to sharp declines. Over the past month, Cocoa’s price has fallen 23. CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906 in December of 2024.Cocoa prices have eased from the record highs of late 2024, but a knock-on effect is still being passed through from chocolatiers onto consumers, according to analysts.The Gross FOB value was arrived at using outstanding cocoa contracts of about 100,000 tonnes sold at US$2,600 per tonne in the 2023/2024 crop season, and average forecast for the 2025/2026 crop season.Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT.In an unprecedented surge, the report says, cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years. Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly USD 12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said.
What is happening in the cocoa market?
Expectations of abundant global cocoa supplies are hammering cocoa prices. Cocoa deliveries in Ghana have surged, weighing on prices. Cocoa arrivals to ports in Ghana in the four weeks ending September 4 reached 50,440 MT compared to about 11,000 MT delivered in the same period in 2024. Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8. MT in 2024/25.Cause. Both Ghana and the Ivory Coast’s production was impacted by weather patterns exacerbated by climate change. The CEO of the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) cited the effects of El Niño as responsible for the cocoa production decrease.
What are cocoa futures?
Cocoa futures are a part of the commodities futures group traded on the InterContinental Exchange in the U. S. Trading is mainly weather and politically-based. Bottom line. You can invest in cocoa by purchasing ETFs, stocks or futures. But before you commit, familiarize yourself with the risks of investing in this commodity, as cocoa is vulnerable to political and environmental shifts. Compare your investing options across commodities and trading platforms before you buy.
Is cocoa good to invest in?
Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment. Global demand for cocoa is fast rising—and producers are struggling to keep pace. It can take an entire year for a cocoa tree to produce the cocoa in just half a pound of chocolate. Older trees also yield less cocoa, and most of the world’s cocoa plantations are well past their peak production years.Cocoa Powder Shortage 2025: Why Cocoa Is So Expensive & How Bakers Can Adapt. If you’ve noticed cocoa powder costing far more — or disappearing from supermarket shelves — you’re not alone. The global cocoa powder shortage is hitting home bakers, artisan chocolatiers, and small baking businesses worldwide.Gov’t announces cocoa price increase for 2025/2026 season, farmers to get GH₵58,000 per tonne. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season.