What is the outlook for cocoa in 2025?
Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8. MT in 2024/25. Much of the global cocoa supply comes from major producers like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire in West Africa, which saw dramatic swings between heavy rainfall and drought in recent years, worsening crop yields on cacao farms and triggering disease.Nigeria remains a key player in the global cocoa export industry, with its beans in high demand across Europe, Asia, and North America. Countries like the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Germany lead the import charts, while emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia continue to drive new growth opportunities.Poor West African Harvests (Climate Change Impacts) 70% of global cocoa comes from West Africa — especially Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Extreme weather patterns (heavy rains, droughts, heatwaves) have slashed crop yields.Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.The highly volatile price of cocoa declined over 40% in global markets as drought concerns eased in West Africa and harvest increases. The ton price of cocoa dropped below $7,000, declining more than 40% since the end of 2024. Estimates of increased supply and weakening demand led to sharp declines.
What is the future price prediction for cocoa?
Cocoa is expected to trade at 5670. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4876. Gov’t announces cocoa price increase for 2025/2026 season, farmers to get GH₵58,000 per tonne. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season.The Gross FOB value was arrived at using outstanding cocoa contracts of about 100,000 tonnes sold at US$2,600 per tonne in the 2023/2024 crop season, and average forecast for the 2025/2026 crop season.Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT.In an unprecedented surge, the report says, cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years. Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly USD 12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said.Global demand for cocoa is fast rising—and producers are struggling to keep pace. It can take an entire year for a cocoa tree to produce the cocoa in just half a pound of chocolate. Older trees also yield less cocoa, and most of the world’s cocoa plantations are well past their peak production years.
Will the cocoa price stay high?
The shift put huge strains on industry stakeholders and led to inevitable price increases for customers at the checkout. However, improving conditions through spring 2025 saw global cocoa production recovering and prices beginning to fall. With cocoa prices more than doubling over the past two years as a result of poor harvests in west Africa, including Ghana and Ivory Coast, even something aimed at gift buyers was being priced off the shelf.Cocoa can be a profitable investment for those who understand its market dynamics and are willing to take calculated risks. Its strong demand, supply vulnerabilities, and historical price volatility make it an attractive option for traders looking for opportunities in the commodities market.Cocoa price prediction: Technical overview US Cocoa (CCc1) trades at $7,398. UTC, below its 20/50/100/200-DMAs at ~7,796 / 8,038 / 8,700 / 9,233. RSI(14) is 42, signalling neutral momentum. The nearest resistance is at 8,529; a daily close above could bring 9,348 into view.Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 12906. December of 2024. Cocoa – data, forecasts, historical chart – was last updated on October 19 of 2025.
What is the new price of cocoa in Ghana 2025?
On 4th August 2025, Government announced a producer price of cocoa for the 2025/2026 season at GHS3,228. GHS51,660 (US$5,040) per tonne, representing 70% of the average Gross FoB price of US$7,200 per tonne. Nestlé buys around 414,000 tons of cocoa annually, for chocolate and confectionery as well as beverages. Our beans and processed cocoa come from major cocoa-growing countries including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela, Mexico, and Indonesia.Once planted and nurtured to maturity, farmers can harvest from a cocoa tree for many years. While initial cultivation can be a hassle, once mature, cocoa trees could be a source of income for the farmer for 40 years or more.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).The Nestlé Cocoa Plan is built on three pillars: Better farming, aiming to improve livelihoods in communities. Better lives, aiming to help cocoa farming families to enhance their social conditions. And Better cocoa, aiming to improve product cocoa traceability.
Is cocoa a buy or sell?
The Cocoa commodity holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Cocoa has historically been a volatile commodity, meaning that prices can experience sharp movements in short periods. However, for those who understand market trends and risk management, investing in cocoa can be profitable.
Is cocoa good to invest in?
Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment. Should I invest in cocoa? Exposure to cocoa may suit traders seeking to engage with commodity market dynamics rather than holding long-term equities. US Cocoa CFDs and Cocoa UK CFDs allow speculation on price moves without owning the underlying commodity, but they track futures prices and require margin.Cocoa futures are a part of the commodities futures group traded on the InterContinental Exchange in the U. S. Trading is mainly weather and politically-based. With much of the cocoa production occurring in politically unstable areas, political factors have a major influence in cocoa price stability.Bottom line. You can invest in cocoa by purchasing ETFs, stocks or futures. But before you commit, familiarize yourself with the risks of investing in this commodity, as cocoa is vulnerable to political and environmental shifts. Compare your investing options across commodities and trading platforms before you buy.