Is cocoa expected to rise?
Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT. On 4th August 2025, Government announced a producer price of cocoa for the 2025/2026 season at GHS3,228. GHS51,660 (US$5,040) per tonne, representing 70% of the average Gross FoB price of US$7,200 per tonne.Côte d’Ivoire (the Ivory Coast) is the largest producer of cocoa in the world, producing over 2 million tons a year.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).Cocoa Prices Surge to Record Highs Even today, in 2025, prices remain high at $6,000–$8,000/ton. In the UK, cocoa climbed from £1,900/tonne in early 2023 to nearly £9,000/tonne in early 2025 — more than a 4x increase. This surge is forcing up cocoa powder prices and leading to supply shortages in stores.Nearly 70 percent of the world’s cocoa comes from two countries in West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The crop is a critical and often sole source of cash for millions of smallholder farming families and supports the livelihood of millions more people in both countries.
What is the outlook for cocoa in 2025?
Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8. MT in 2024/25. Côte d’Ivoire (the Ivory Coast) is the largest producer of cocoa in the world, producing over 2 million tons a year.Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa-producing country (Côte d’Ivoire is the largest). Cocoa Life has been active in Ghana since 2008, when it began as the Cadbury Cocoa Partnership.Nigeria remains a key player in the global cocoa export industry, with its beans in high demand across Europe, Asia, and North America. Countries like the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Germany lead the import charts, while emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia continue to drive new growth opportunities.Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producing country. Around 2 million tonnes of cocoa are produced in this coastal country. That is approximately 38 % of the world’s cocoa. This industry accounts for 15 % of the country’s gross domestic product.Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producing country. Around 2 million tonnes of cocoa are produced in this coastal country. That is approximately 38 % of the world’s cocoa.
Why are cocoa futures so high?
Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply. Climate Risks Shape Cocoa Futures Increasing climate risks to production means greater costs for buyers. Forced to pay more for cocoa, chocolate companies have adopted various strategies to maintain profitability — overall, passing the price on to consumers.The Gross FOB value was arrived at using outstanding cocoa contracts of about 100,000 tonnes sold at US$2,600 per tonne in the 2023/2024 crop season, and average forecast for the 2025/2026 crop season.One of the key causes of the cocoa crisis is weather having a negative impact on yields. The process of cocoa production requires very specific climatic conditions.Cocoa Futures Hit Fresh 20-Month Low Cocoa futures remained under pressure, falling below $6,100 per tonne, a fresh low since February 2024, following the governments of the Ivory Coast and Ghana’s decision to raise payments to farmers, a move expected to reduce smuggling and boost cocoa availability.
Is cocoa good to invest in?
Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment. With cocoa prices more than doubling over the past two years as a result of poor harvests in west Africa, including Ghana and Ivory Coast, even something aimed at gift buyers was being priced off the shelf.The minimal processing and often organic cultivation of cacao typically make it a higher-quality and, thus, more expensive product than cocoa.
Who are the major players in cocoa futures?
Key exchanges involved in cocoa trading include ICE London, ICE Futures US, and CME Europe. Knowing these exchanges and their operations helps participants navigate cocoa trading, enabling informed decisions and effective risk management. There are currently three places where cocoa futures contracts can be exchanged: ICE Futures U. S. New York), ICE Futures Europe (London) and CME Europe (London).Should I invest in cocoa? Exposure to cocoa may suit traders seeking to engage with commodity market dynamics rather than holding long-term equities. US Cocoa CFDs and Cocoa UK CFDs allow speculation on price moves without owning the underlying commodity, but they track futures prices and require margin.Ways To Trade Cocoa Cocoa investors have several ways to invest in the commodity including futures, options, ETFs, stocks and CFDs. More about each below: What is this?