What is the future price prediction for cocoa?
Cocoa is expected to trade at 5670. USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4876. Cocoa Prices Surge to Record Highs Even today, in 2025, prices remain high at $6,000–$8,000/ton. In the UK, cocoa climbed from £1,900/tonne in early 2023 to nearly £9,000/tonne in early 2025 — more than a 4x increase. This surge is forcing up cocoa powder prices and leading to supply shortages in stores.The shift put huge strains on industry stakeholders and led to inevitable price increases for customers at the checkout. However, improving conditions through spring 2025 saw global cocoa production recovering and prices beginning to fall.In an unprecedented surge, the report says, cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years. Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly USD 12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said.Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT.The current price of London Cocoa Futures is 4,288 GBP — it has fallen −4. Watch London Cocoa Futures price in more detail on the chart.
Is cocoa expected to rise?
Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7. MMT. The International Cocoa Organization projects that global cocoa supply will drop by 13% to 4.Gov’t announces cocoa price increase for 2025/2026 season, farmers to get GH₵58,000 per tonne. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season.Cocoa crisis (2024–present) As of February 2025, cocoa prices have repeatedly hit record highs since 2024, after consecutive growing seasons in West Africa were negatively impacted by weather and disease.Global demand for cocoa is fast rising—and producers are struggling to keep pace. It can take an entire year for a cocoa tree to produce the cocoa in just half a pound of chocolate. Older trees also yield less cocoa, and most of the world’s cocoa plantations are well past their peak production years.Part of that upswing is driven, of course, by chocolate — which, in turn, is driven by the cocoa prices that have more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, according to a recent analysis from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
What is going on with cocoa futures?
Cocoa Futures Hit New 2024-Low On the demand side, upcoming Q3 cocoa grind data for Europe, North America, and Asia is expected to show year-on-year declines, following three consecutive quarters of falling cocoa bean processing across all regions. Cocoa supply is expected to improve in 2025 due to favorable weather conditions in West Africa. The continuously challenging weather in West Africa, where most of the world’s cocoa supply comes from, led to the highest prices of cocoa products in history.Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects Nigeria’s 2025/26 cocoa production will fall -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. In related news, Nigeria reported that its July cocoa exports fell -22% y/y to 13,579 MT.Cocoa futures are traded on the ICE Exchange under ticker symbol CC in dollars per metric ton. Cocoa futures prices rarely follow reliable patterns due to political issues, mainly in Africa.The cocoa market is set for continued volatility in Q3 and Q4 2025, as tight supply, historically high prices, and weakening demand converge to create a challenging environment,” says Vesper’s Schräder. Output in West Africa, which supplies over 70% of the world’s cocoa, remains fragile.
What is the price of cocoa in 2025?
Date: 02nd October 2025 2. On 4th August 2025, Government announced a producer price of cocoa for the 2025/2026 season at GHS3,228. GHS51,660 (US$5,040) per tonne, representing 70% of the average Gross FoB price of US$7,200 per tonne. While cocoa presents valuable investment opportunities due to its active trade and strategic importance, it also faces notable risks, including climate change, market volatility, and geopolitical instability.Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment.Cocoa prices have soared in recent years, hitting record highs amid adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks and supply tightness in West Africa, which produces around three-quarters of global supply.Cocoa is a luxury commodity and a crucial ingredient in many of life’s finer things: from sweets to pharmaceuticals, to various cultural dishes. Its popularity makes it a prominent asset on the stock market, but supply problems, environmental and political issues can sometimes make it an unstable investment.Climate Risks Shape Cocoa Futures Increasing climate risks to production means greater costs for buyers. Forced to pay more for cocoa, chocolate companies have adopted various strategies to maintain profitability — overall, passing the price on to consumers.
Who is the biggest trader of cocoa?
Germany is the biggest cocoa exporter in the world, with cocoa exports worth $7. Olam food ingredients are the biggest cocoa suppliers in the world with an export revenue of $4. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producing country. Around 2 million tonnes of cocoa are produced in this coastal country. That is approximately 38 % of the world’s cocoa.Côte d’Ivoire (the Ivory Coast) is the largest producer of cocoa in the world, producing over 2 million tons a year. About 75 percent of the land in Côte d’Ivoire is suitable for growing crops, and almost half of its citizens work in agriculture, including many children.Cocoa farming is highly profitable due to the growing demand for chocolate and other cocoa products. The profitability depends on factors like yield per hectare, market price, and cost of production. Average Yield: 400-600kg per hectare per year. Price per Kg: ₦13000 – ₦15000 (as of 2024).After Ghana announced new rates in August, Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top producer, will launch its 2025/26 cocoa marketing season in October. Sources at the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC) told Reuters that the government will set the farm-gate price at CFA 2,500 ($4.Nearly 70 percent of the world’s cocoa comes from two countries in West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The crop is a critical and often sole source of cash for millions of smallholder farming families and supports the livelihood of millions more people in both countries.
Why is the price of cocoa dropping?
The highly volatile price of cocoa declined over 40% in global markets as drought concerns eased in West Africa and harvest increases. The ton price of cocoa dropped below $7,000, declining more than 40% since the end of 2024. Estimates of increased supply and weakening demand led to sharp declines. The government has announced an upward adjustment of the producer price of cocoa, offering a reprieve to farmers for the 2025/26 season. The new price has been set at GH₵3,625 per bag, equivalent to GH₵58,000 per tonne, effective Friday, October 3, 2025.Poor West African Harvests (Climate Change Impacts) 70% of global cocoa comes from West Africa — especially Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Extreme weather patterns (heavy rains, droughts, heatwaves) have slashed crop yields. Harmattan winds in 6 years, devastating cocoa production.Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8. MT in 2024/25.